Decision-Making Template: Widen Your Options, Test Your Favorite
Most templates stop at pros and cons. This one goes after the usual traps: too few options, only looking for reasons you're right, and not imagining what could go wrong. It ends with your choice, how sure you are, and a date to look back.
Combines 'consider the opposite' and premortem techniques from decision research. See the sources
Fill it in here
- What exactly are you deciding, and by when?
- Aim for at least three. "Both," "neither" and "wait" count.
- Rank what you care about. The top one settles close calls.
- Argue why your preferred option could be the wrong one.
- It's a year from now and this went badly. What happened?
- I'm going with:
- Because:
- How sure I am (0 to 100%):
- Look back on:
Start writing and you can save it to Brain Dump as a note.
When to use it
- A choice that's hard to reverse or has real consequences
- When you've already got a favorite and want to check it
- When you keep going back and forth
What it's based on
Combines techniques that counter common decision traps: more than two options, arguing against your favorite (shown to reduce biased judgment), and a premortem, imagining it already failed, which helps you think of more risks. You log your confidence so you can check it later.
Research-backed
Built on a technique that's been tested in published studies. The sources below say how strong that evidence is.
We don't claim the premortem improves accuracy; it surfaces more risks.
Sources
How to use it well
Write the decision and the deadline first. Vague decisions don't get made
List at least three options. Both, neither and wait count
Rank what matters before comparing options, not after
Argue against your favorite honestly, then imagine it's a year later and it failed
Write your choice, your confidence from 0 to 100%, and a date to look back
FAQ
You imagine the decision has already failed and write why. Research on this 'prospective hindsight' found people come up with more reasons this way. It surfaces risks; it doesn't guarantee a better choice.
So you can check later. Comparing your confidence with how things turned out is how you learn whether your gut is well calibrated.
For small choices, yes. Pros and cons usually only cover the options you already had in mind, and tend to confirm your favorite.
Keep it in Brain Dump
Start a note from this template in your browser, or on iPhone, iPad and Mac. It's there whenever you need it again.
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